Following Trends and Being the Trend
Great businessmen know how to follow the trends and strike when the iron is hot. However, great minds follow their own beliefs and trends seem to follow. You see it in the fashion world all the time, one person can wear their collar up and it seems to catch on all over the place. Is the idea of a popped collar anything new? Of course not. Hell, Eric Cantona sported it back in the early 90’s and I’m sure he wasn’t the first.
For some people it caught on and for others it didn’t. Very few ideas are new and the rest of them just follow a cycle. That cycle is the trend and in every industry of the web you see over 90% of the companies falling at the end of the trend. It seems so many of us fail to see the obvious and capitalize on it or we just don’t realize that the trend is over.
Blogs are nothing new. The revolution they have created on the web is nothing short of spectacular. However, they are ingrained in people’s minds now so claiming them as the next big thing isn’t effective. They have already been the next big thing many times over. Email newsletters were the next big thing years before that. Community sites and forums have always been the next big thing.
Some people like to pretend they can see a trend coming. Some people actually act on the upcoming trend. The rest fight for position at the bottom tail of the trend. There is a problem with trends and that is we tend to latch on to them and once we do that we can’t let go. That doesn’t mean you should give up on something. Blogs won’t die and for example, blog networks shouldn’t give up on them. However, continually thinking that the blogging trend as it is right now is going to remain strong will only leave you hurting later.
Musicians do this with their music and the one-hit wonders become that way because their music doesn’t evolve. Blogs become that way because their content doesn’t change (not the topics being discussed, but the content itself has to move on). This site gains in traffic every month but it isn’t exponential growth. I’m sure Kottke and Gruber would say the same thing. Nothing has really changed with these sites. We have latched onto one trend and haven’t let go.
That isn’t a bad thing though. We do what we love and that’s very important to maintain. However without adapting there is no growth and for many sites no growth (exponential) means death. Here’s a hint though, People and Communication will always be the next greatest trend.
Related reading:
Dude, turned up collars were around long before the 90’s. I popped a couple of them myself (although never made a habit of it — like some did) in 1981.
Trendsetting. Now there’s a thought. Thing about hot iron though is once you’re handed the 10 lb sledge in which to forge the iron, you don’t ususally then have 5 years to think about taking a swing.
Know what I mean?
;)
By Mark on August 16, 2006 2:41 pm
Like I said Mark: People and Communication will always be the next big thing. Clubs never die ;-)
Know what I mean?
By Scrivs on August 16, 2006 2:49 pm
No, clubs (or the social aspect of clubs) won’t die. But priorities change, audiences change, needs change, popularity changes — on the part of both the potential trendsetter and the followers. What’s hot today, won’t be tomorrow. None of the clubs that existed in my hayday are around today. Why? Economy changed, city culture changed, other trends that these clubs were built from died out.
As you and Tyme noted, you dont have to look much further than the designer blog world to see how those who were all the rage just a couple of years ago get hardly any notice anymore — they’re still about the people and communication, right?
By Mark on August 16, 2006 3:11 pm
Awww. Damn, Mark beat me to it. I’ve got a popped collar izod on in my 6th grade picture, back in 1983. Complete with Dio pin.
By Keith on August 16, 2006 3:35 pm
Also, come to think of it, I dont like the term “trendsetter” either. Trends are temporary, so setting in motion something that amounts to a temporary and unsubstantative movement is boring. Better to be the agent of real change that affects the society game in a way that it’ll never be played the same.
We don’t need anymore trends to be set or started. We need originalitysetters. Folks who, after they’ve accumulated their followers while running across the country, just stop, turn around and baffle everyone by stating, “I think I’m going to go home now.”
—
[offtopic] Keith, I noted from a comment elsewhere that you used to work as a web developer at Lockheed. If you dont mind my asking — when and where?
I worked at USA (a Lockheed / Boeing venture) in Houston from 96 - 99 as a sr. multimedia developer for space flight operations.
Sorry. Just thought that was interesting.
By Mark on August 16, 2006 4:49 pm
Man, popped collars are cool. Mostly.
Actually I am here to say what a great run of articles you’ve published lately. This is awesome, excellent meaningful article after excellent meaningful article. I had been a bit worried a few weeks ago when it seems that nothing was happening, but you are recharged now!
Thanks a lot Scrivs, and don’t forget to pop your collar once in a while, (my girlfriend would probably kill me if I popped mine).
By John Beales on August 16, 2006 7:36 pm
That’s my point though Mark, you want to be the one that recognizes the new phases coming along before they happen. In Tampa, clubs adapt accordingly and the ones that don’t fall behind quickly. If I see the end of a club I get out before the end. Just because I start something, it doesn’t mean I want to be around to bury it.
CSS Design Galleries: I saw that trend fading way before anyone else, yet people continued on starting them while I cashed out.
Trendsetter is a hindsight type of term. You can’t purposefully be a trendsetter, you just gotta do what feels right and if it catches on, it catches on.
Originallysetters as you coined them are no different. They will come and do something and it will be original, but people will follow them till it becomes a trend.
John: Thanks man, according to most though I slipped a long time ago and these articles are just getting worse. To each their own.
By Scrivs on August 16, 2006 7:42 pm
I knew popped collars would be a bad example, but hopefully all of you got the idea.
By Scrivs on August 16, 2006 7:42 pm
Yeh, sorry Paul. I wasn’t intending to argue your point — which I essentially agree with, I was just airing a little mini-rant on the word itself.
By Mark on August 16, 2006 8:22 pm
A great post. The term “trend” is a made-up abstract. Nothing more or less than a label we decide to agree upon to give an emerging phenomenon a shape when the time has come. It exists so we can refer to it to debate it. One thing I would add to people and communication… monetization. I can think of a single modern day trend that didn’t involve someone trying to turn a profit from it whether that was the original intent or not.
By soxiam on August 16, 2006 9:17 pm
Ah man Scrivs! Why did you have to give me that flashback to high school when I sported the popped collar and a perm. Oh why, why, why!
By Dennis on August 16, 2006 10:00 pm
In your life you see a lot of trends start and end and in some parts there seems to be a trend time warp where the trends go when they die amongst the masses. It is a bit like a trend ripple effect where the more out of the loop people are the slower it takes to get to them. Trends also in this loop tend to dillute and loose their original punch - it’s like there is some rule of multiplication formula reducing the impact of a trend each time someone adapts it. You can try to buck trends but invariably by doing that you are just doing a bucking trends trend - I figure it’s best to just go your own path as best you can. When you are younger, everyone has a touch of the sheep about them and follows trends for the sake. As you get older these flitting trends seem less attractive and you follow more of your own path.
By karmatosed on August 17, 2006 3:17 am
I surely agree with you Scrivs, Most of the Blog Networks have got hold of a trend set by WIN and Gawker, and none of the current player is evolving.
Blog networks need to evolve, experiment, they need to be brave and different, or we might see a downwards trends in current networks. 9rules have done a good job in getting closer to readers by giving them more power via 9rules notes. But I expect more revolutionary changes in current networks in coming days.
By Ankit on August 17, 2006 4:25 am
One of the basic rules of nature and of anything is evolve or die. This is apt on and offline.
By karmatosed on August 18, 2006 2:32 pm
Hmmm reminds me of that old thankfully shortlived TV series of the 70’s, Jason King, with the shirt collar and cuffs over the suitcoat collar and turned back over the jacket cuffs. Fortunately that trend was short lived.
@karmarosed: I’d say adapt more than evolve (though one might argue it is semantics). The shark, crocodile and cockroach are all still around and are very adaptable but essentially have not evolved significantly from their prehistoric ancestors.
I never cared much for the term blog, or even web log. Ultimately, except for multi-author news sites, they are all bascially just personal web pages with a sophisticated guestbook script.
“and the old is new again”
By WD Milner on August 19, 2006 8:50 pm
‘People and Communication’ are the next big thing….mmm…you might have to elaborate on what you mean by this as blogging is already a form of communication…and they are usually written in a personal manner (people)…so, isn’t this ‘big thing’ already happening?!
If, by ‘communication’ - you mean the mobile communication world…and by ‘people’ you mean where people have more control over the way they communicate with other people…then yes - that could be the next big thing. With mobile communication technologies getting cheaper to produce and faster at achieving their tasks - the online world will gradually become more mobile and conventional blogs themselves will barely resemble the look, length, and feel of current web sites.
Anyway, ‘People and Communication’ is not a new thing or the next big thing…but perhaps a variation of it will be. Maybe. ;)
Good article Scrivs.
By Matt Robin on August 20, 2006 2:47 pm
[...] { one person can wear their collar up and it seems to catch on all over the place. Is the idea of a popped collar anything new? Of course not. Hell, Eric Cantona sported it back in the early 90’s and I’m sure he wasn’t the first. } source [...]
By Shallway | 万事开头难 :: POSTs from wisdump :: August :: 2006 on August 21, 2006 1:24 pm
Apparently Lacoste branded polos and popped collars are back. Or is that because retro is the new new?
By Hisham on August 22, 2006 4:47 pm
10 things Google knows about you…
Recently I have been asked the question, “What does Google know about me?” These people were concerned with their privacy and were interested in knowing what Google knows about them, so I decided to some searches. Here are some interesting results on…
By Pronet Advertising on August 25, 2006 12:04 pm
Has everyone forgotten the originator of the popped collar?
Don Johnson! A hero and mentor to a generation!!
By Matthew on September 3, 2006 3:49 pm