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Categories That Will Fail In ‘06

2005 was a very positive year filled with growth, acquisitions and false dreams. In 2006 I think you will begin to see the fall of many business categories built upon models that aren’t sustainable for long-term growth. I will try my best to play Nostradamus as I look at a few online categories that are doomed to fail in my opinion.

Blog Networks

Ironic that I start off with this one, eh? Barry Bell is going in the right direction when he asks where’s the value in blog networks? 9rules many times is referred to as a blog ring because we “simply get a ton of sites and just put a logo on them”, but the irony is the “real” blog networks exhibit more of the qualities of a web ring than 9rules does.

As is the case with the rest of the categories I touch upon in this entry, you have to provide some type of value to the end user and many blog networks just don’t do that. Many of them don’t even provide any value to their writers, but since they are so easy to startup and a ton of people are getting caught up in the “pro-blogging” wave they will continue to grow in numbers for a little bit longer before declining rapidly.

Checkout why blog Networks will fail in ‘06 at Work Boxers.

Online Feedreaders

SearchFox is the first victim this year, closing its doors on January 25th and I can only imagine that more will follow. It just seems to be the kind of space where the expenses outweigh the revenues (the tipping point is never reached). There is definitely room for something innovative in this space, but for once this sector needs to step into the mainstream I think to truly be successful.

Digg-Type Sites

You will see a lot more Diggs this year because they are easy to implement and setup and the rewards outweight the risks. However, with so many coming on to the scene, which one becomes the de facto standard? Digg is not without its problems, but it already has a choke hold on this sector and if Kevin Rose ever decides to expand its topics it can truly be a force amongst mainstream web users.

I don’t think however that Digg threatens real news sites such as Newsvine since Newsvine only reports real news (as far as I can tell) or Slashdot, which has a stronger community. Digg reminds me more of Fark with its quick links and short blurbs. Its success comes because of its quick hit addiction. You always comeback looking for that cool new link (the quick link), but usually just leave unsatisfied.

So those are my three categories that I think will definitely see a major dropoff this year. Probably not in the first half as momentum is still going, but shortly thereafter and honestly I couldn’t be happier. Monday I will go into why I think many of these sites and companies don’t make it big like they imagined they would and what type of companies are the ones that get bought up by Yahoo, Google, et al.

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Published by Scrivs on January 13, 2006 in Business • Did you like it? Subscribe! Or Submit it to Blogosphere News!

16 people says things!

  1. As far as online feedreaders, I never really go into them, and perhaps that’s just because NetNewsWire is so damn good. But, there are a few times here and there, like when I am stuck at my parents house and bored, that I would love to have an online counterpart. It sounds like NNW will be headed this way with NewsGator, coexisting in both spaces, rather than one exclusively.

    By Jason Santa Maria on January 13, 2006 10:00 am

  2. Good call Jason. I know people that swear by Bloglines, like Rundle, but for me the offline readers are what I enjoy the most. But like you mentioned this does cause a dilemma when I take the iBook with me and wish to see which sites have been updated. Definitely looking forward to seeing the integration Gator does with NNW.

    And speaking of Gator, their acquisitions of last year go to show why I think many of the online readers will start to fade. Gator is controlling the online and offline markets and it seems Bloglines is really the only threat left to them. Well that is if you leave Kinja out of the picture :-P.

    By Scrivs on January 13, 2006 10:08 am

  3. I think the reason you guys don’t enjoy online aggregators is because no one has done it right yet. Feedlounge is looking extremely promising.

    For me, I travel between computers more than I change my clothes–so a computer-based aggregator like NNW is out of the question. Bloglines is about as good as it gets right now. And, it’s not all that bad.

    However, out of your list I’m going to only have to keep Blog Networks. I think people will be starting them by the dozens in ‘06 and fail each and every time.

    By Kyle on January 13, 2006 10:37 am

  4. Online aggregators aren’t quite cool yet; but they may become cool. People always say “oh..that didn’t work” until someone comes out with the ultimate tool and everyone loves it. In my particular case, I hate bloglines and every online aggregator, but that’s is because I use an offline application; people using online readers love bloglines and that sort of tools, so they still have public.

    What it takes? just a good idea, and keeping it simple.

    By Javier Cabrera (ClearYourMind) on January 13, 2006 11:00 am

  5. I had to chime in just because I hope that web-based readers don’t fail. I recently switched to a web-based version so that I could easily “sync” my feeds from home and work. Now I only read the news once instead of reading it once using my work feedreader and once more at home using my other feedreader.

    By Jason on January 13, 2006 11:02 am

  6. I guess I should point out that just because I say a category will fail it doesn’t mean that a few players won’t thrive. An example would’ve been web-based email sites a couple of years ago.

    By Scrivs on January 13, 2006 11:04 am

  7. Thats too bad about Searchfox because I heard many good things about it. Unfortunatley, I never got my invite in time. I just liked the how it knew what the user wanted to read based on what they normally read. Good stuff, too bad.

    By TJ on January 13, 2006 11:12 am

  8. I agree with the comment that no one has really done web-based feed readers right yet. I used to use a offline reader, but it became a problem for me between work and home. Bloglines solved that for me, but I don’t think it’s the ultimate in web-based readers. I’ll look forward to some new offerings appearing, if at all.

    By Jordan Elver on January 13, 2006 12:03 pm

  9. Can you also talk about why it’s not a bad thing when a company gets bought ;) I remember Jason had a small fit when del.icio.us was bought by Yahoo!

    Scrivis, don’t forget to mention something like netvibes.com - I’m really interested in your predictions for that

    By Dustin Diaz on January 13, 2006 2:28 pm

  10. Wow, I agree with all 3. I was thinking about this a few days ago, and like you said, these categories still have some steam left in them before they do die out.

    By Christian Montoya on January 13, 2006 3:17 pm

  11. Dustin: Sounds like two more entries need to be written up. I see a couple of people complain here and there about Yahoo’s acquisition of Flickr, but from what I can gather nothing has diminished at all.

    By Scrivs on January 13, 2006 3:27 pm

  12. What is with the failures of 2006 you seem to be writing up. Seems so negative. :P I agree with what you wrote of course, but I think Bloglines will live. :) And blog networks will either see the sites split off (FineFools) or merge (I think certain sites should merge like all of the fanboy sites that the Joystiq crew has started making). Just my 2 cents…

    By David on January 13, 2006 6:16 pm

  13. David will copy all content of hopes to make a MEGA Community Network Blog Ring.

    http://jaob.wordpress.com/2006/01/14/gone-to-far/

    By adam on January 14, 2006 2:03 am

  14. I hope web-based feed readers don’t fail, because I’m working on one myself at the moment! I do hope we’ll see the end of blog networks though, because they don’t half annoy me, same goes for sites created purely to generate Adsense revenue.

    By Paul on January 14, 2006 9:11 am

  15. Haha, glad my new, top secret project isn’t on your list.

    As for online feed readers, I couldn’t agree more. It’s just too much hassle having to go to a site as a middle link, just to view your feeds. I personally use something that, I guess you could say, is in the middle. The Sage extension for Firefox. I’m not crazy about it (which is why I’m going to purchase FeedDemon soon), but hey, it doesn’t force me to go to a site to view my news.

    By Veracon on January 14, 2006 9:35 am

  16. Blog Networks are often terrible ideas that just exist to push out poor quality content. A blogger or any kind of writer should write when they feel some kind of passion, not to meet a fascist daily quota. That aside, my “blog network” is really just a division of labour for me so that I can organize my thoughts better.

    On a more positive note, the big thing in 2006 will be monetizing web services ;)

    By Elliott Back on January 15, 2006 12:36 am

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